Brazil held interest rates steady in January, but signaled a March cut

The decision that changed nothing — but signaled something

On January 28, 2026, at the year's first meeting, Brazil's central bank committee (Copom) held the Selic rate at 15% per year, unanimously among its seven directors. That's the highest level in 20 years, held since June 2025 after six straight meetings without a cut.

The relevant news wasn't the hold itself — already expected by the market — but the statement that came with it: the committee signaled that, if the expected scenario is confirmed, it should begin easing monetary policy as soon as its next meeting, scheduled for March.

Why this signal matters more than this meeting's number

For a small business weighing when to take on credit, expand, or invest, a signal of a future rate cut changes the "wait or act now" calculation. A loan taken today locks in the current rate; waiting for a March cut could mean a lower rate, but also a delayed business decision.

There's no universal right answer — it depends on how urgently the operation needs the investment now versus how much the cost of credit weighs on the numbers.

What to do with this kind of signal

Three things help you decide with more information: if the credit need is urgent (working capital, inventory, payroll), waiting for a March cut rarely outweighs the risk of running short on cash now. If the investment can wait a month or two without real harm, it's worth simulating the loan cost at today's rate and at a hypothetical rate 0.25 to 0.50 points lower, to see if the difference justifies waiting. And keep an eye on Copom's March meeting before renewing or taking out a long-term credit line.

Where Diglion comes in

Diglion helps small businesses decide the right time to seek credit based on the real cost of waiting, not just the expectation of a lower rate.

Sources consulted

• InfoMoney, Banco Central mantém Selic em 15% ao ano e indica corte de juros em março, retrieved 2026-02-02.