Black Friday 2026: two different forecasts and what small retailers do with them

Two forecasts, two methods: why the numbers don't match

Black Friday 2026 falls on November 27, and two forecasts are already circulating in the market. Abiacom (the Brazilian e-commerce association) estimates R$ 16.6 billion. Neotrust (a company that monitors Brazilian e-commerce transactions), in partnership with Confi, estimates R$ 13.3 billion. It looks like a fight between numbers, but the two measure different things, and that changes how you should use them.

Let's take it one piece at a time. Abiacom forecasts revenue for "Black Friday week," without specifying exact dates. The number is R$ 16.6 billion, up 24.4% from R$ 13.35 billion in 2025. The association also expects 21.66 million orders, compared with 16.51 million last year, roughly 31.2% more. The data was published by E-Commerce Brasil on October 21 and by Mercado&Consumo on October 22.

Neotrust looks at a narrower window: four days, from November 26 to 29. It forecasts R$ 13.3 billion in that period, up 20.7% from R$ 11.03 billion in the previous edition, and 69.4 million products sold, 15.4% more. The presentation took place on October 13, and the basis is real transactions from more than 7,000 partner stores.

A week versus four days

Here is the central point. A "week" with no defined dates and a four-day window with a clear start and end are not the same yardstick. Comparing R$ 16.6 billion with R$ 13.3 billion and concluding that one institute "got it wrong" would be like comparing a month's revenue with a fortnight's.

There is one more detail. Abiacom did not explain its methodology, nor did it break down the R$ 11.32 billion slice it attributes to Black Friday. That doesn't mean the number is wrong. It means that, for now, we can't check where it comes from.

We won't pick a winner

This article won't tell you which forecast is the right one. Both are estimates, made by different methods, and only the December results will show what happened. What you can do now is take from each one what is useful.

Neotrust, for example, offers breakdowns by category. Home appliances are expected to total R$ 2.12 billion (+44.5%), fashion and accessories R$ 1.38 billion (+44.2%), and beauty and perfumery R$ 910 million (+69.8%). Abiacom, in turn, offers a valuable clue about behavior: the association's president, Fernando Mansano, said that "high interest rates and the economic scenario are making consumers choose to save," and that customers are comparing prices and brands far more.

If you sell in one of those categories, look closely at the percentages. If you sell in another, use the numbers as general climate, not as a target.

How to read a forecast without being misled

A market forecast is not a target for your store. Neotrust, for example, forecasts a 20.7% increase for Black Friday 2026, but it starts from a scenario in which part of the sales lost by chains in crisis goes to other retailers. That "if" makes a difference when you plan inventory and cash.

Before turning any number into a decision, it's worth asking yourself four questions. They work for any forecast, from this Black Friday or the next.

What exactly is being measured?

Always ask about the period, the data source, and the universe. "Week" and "four days" change everything. Real transactions from 7,000 partner stores is also a specific universe: your store may look like the average of those stores, or it may be very different.

What is the assumption behind the increase?

Every growth forecast assumes something. In Neotrust's case, according to Exame, the 20.7% increase presumes that the sales Casas Bahia and Marabraz stopped making will be absorbed by the rest of the market. Both chains entered judicial recovery and lost share in the third quarter.

That is context, not a prediction about your business. But it helps you understand that the expected growth depends on consumers migrating to other stores, and that you will be competing for that migration with everyone else.

What does the average hide?

A national average says nothing about your reality. One sector can grow nearly 70% while another grows far less, and your store can go against the tide in either of them. The forecast serves as a backdrop. Real planning uses your own history: sales from past years, conversion rate, average ticket, the seasonality of your niche.

How do you turn this into a number of your own?

A simple way: look at how much your store sold on last year's Black Friday and in the whole month of November. Then build three scenarios, a pessimistic one, a realistic one, and an optimistic one, instead of betting everything on a single market percentage. Inventory, cash, and staff are planned by range, not by a single point.

More orders, smaller tickets: what that does to your margin

Both surveys point to the same pattern: more orders and a lower average value. Abiacom forecasts an average ticket of R$ 766.50, down 5.2% from R$ 808.50 in 2025. In Neotrust's data, the average e-commerce ticket fell 13.4% over the year, from R$ 309.70 to R$ 268.20.

The year's numbers show the same movement. From January to September 2026, Brazilian e-commerce generated R$ 322.6 billion in revenue, up 16.9%, and processed 1.20 billion orders, up 34.9%, according to Neotrust. Orders growing much faster than revenue is what drags the ticket down.

Why a smaller ticket squeezes the math

Every order has costs that don't change much with the purchase value: packaging, picking time, labels, fixed payment fees, customer service. When the ticket falls, those costs weigh more on each real sold. You can sell more and keep less.

Think of two sales. One of R$ 800 and another of R$ 270. The work of picking, packing, and shipping is similar in both. Now imagine the whole Black Friday with more orders of the second kind. Revenue goes up, margin per order goes down.

What to do with this information

Before the date, calculate the real margin per order, already discounting shipping, payment method fees, packaging, and the part of the discount you will give. Many stores find out in December that they sold a lot and earned little, because they did the math only on the list price.

A few ideas that tend to help, always within what makes sense for your business:

• Build kits and bundles that lead the customer to buy more than one item per order.
• Set a minimum order value for special shipping terms, without promising free shipping on everything.
• Review which products can take a discount and which can't.
• Avoid promotions on very low-margin items, which only create work.

None of these measures is magic. But they all start from the same idea: understand how much each order leaves in the till before deciding on the price.

Consumers are researching more

Mansano's remark reinforces this scenario: with high interest rates, consumers compare prices and brands far more than before. For you, that means the product page needs to quickly answer the questions of someone who is comparing: clear price, visible delivery time, an exchange policy that is easy to find, good photos. Someone who researches a lot abandons the page that leaves them in doubt.

Three quarters of sales happen outside the four days of Black Friday

In November 2025, Brazilian e-commerce generated R$ 46.98 billion in revenue, and only 23.5% of that total fell in the four days of Black Friday, according to Neotrust data. In other words, about three quarters of the month's sales happened outside the event. This changes the strategy for anyone with a small budget and little inventory.

It seems counterintuitive, because Black Friday fills the entire news cycle. But the month of November is bigger than the date. Many people buy earlier, waiting for a price, and many buy later, once the dust settles and the store is less crowded.

Don't bet everything on one date

If your strategy is "I'll sell everything on Friday," you are competing for attention with every store in the country on the noisiest day of the year. That demands more expensive ad spend, deeper inventory, and a site that can take the pounding. For a small retailer, that may be the worst battle to choose.

An alternative is to spread the campaign out. Start warming up your customer base earlier, with an email list, WhatsApp, and social media. Make pre-launch offers to people who already know the store. Keep some conditions in place after the date, to capture those who kept researching and didn't decide.

Other dates count too

Singles' Day, 11.11, is a good example that the offers calendar is longer than one Friday. The forecast for 11.11 this year is R$ 3.17 billion, up 21%. It isn't Black Friday, but it is a demand test that happens two weeks earlier and helps you gauge how your audience is behaving.

If your store has a history, use that date as a rehearsal: test an offer, check the conversion rate, and confirm that the site and logistics held up under the volume. It's better to find a bottleneck on the 11th than on the 27th.

What this means for inventory

Those who spread demand over several weeks also spread inventory risk. Instead of buying one huge batch for a single day, you can work with smaller replenishments and adjust as sales come in. This takes a conversation with your supplier and short lead times, but it lowers the chance of being stuck with unsold products or selling what you don't have.

Checkout and site speed: where sales get lost

None of the forecasts talks about conversion, and that is exactly where many stores lose money. Traffic rises on Black Friday, but what matters is how many visitors finish the purchase. A slow site or a confusing checkout turns paid ads into cost with no return.

It's worth saying: we have no market figure on abandonment rates for this Black Friday, and we won't invent one. What we have is the common sense of those who have seen stores go down at peak. Test the purchase flow from start to finish, on a phone, before the date.

Test as a customer, not as the owner

Take an ordinary phone, preferably not the newest one, and use mobile data instead of the office Wi-Fi. Search for a product, add it to the cart, apply a coupon, choose shipping, and pay. Note every point where you hesitated or waited. If you hesitated, the customer will give up.

Ask two or three outsiders, unfamiliar with the store, to do the same thing. Watch without helping. It's uncomfortable, but it reveals more problems than any report.

Items worth checking

• Payment methods: Pix, card, and installments working, with the right amounts.
• Coupons: clear rules, with no combination that produces a bigger discount than planned.
• Form fields: only what is needed to close the order.
• Error messages: text that explains what to do, not technical code.
• Product pages: loading fast, with lightweight images and a visible buy button.
• Stock on the site: reflecting real inventory, so you don't sell what has run out.

Talk to whoever looks after your site

If your site is maintained by an agency, a platform, or a developer, talk to them now, not in the week of the date. Ask whether the hosting plan can handle a rise in traffic, whether caching is configured, and who is on call that day. Last-minute changes to a store platform tend to cause problems. Ideally, freeze major changes a few days beforehand.

Traffic peaks and your infrastructure

Data from Intelipost (a Brazilian freight-quoting and logistics platform) gives a hint of how aggressive the peak can be. On September 9, the company recorded 78.5 thousand freight quotes per minute, about 90% of the Black Friday 2025 peak. That was on an ordinary date, well before the event. In other words, the volume of queries is already high and should grow even more.

You don't need complicated math to draw the lesson: a system that works well day to day can choke at the peak. Test ahead of time.

Shipping and delivery time: the promise you have to keep

Intelipost forecasts 108 million freight quotes on Black Friday 2026, up 14% from 94.8 million in 2025. For the period from November 26 to 30, the expectation is around 412 million quotes and 3.6 million orders. On an ordinary day, the volume is around 47 million.

These numbers show how many people will compare shipping and delivery time before buying. The quote is a decision step: the customer looks at the cost, looks at the delivery time, and often gives up right there. Those who show reasonable shipping and a realistic delivery time win the sale. Those who overpromise and run late lose the customer.

The delivery time you promise is what matters

The most useful piece of Intelipost data, for a small retailer, is a different one. According to the Mercado&Consumo report, repurchase after an on-time delivery reached 36%, compared with 26% after a delay. The cited slice is fashion and first purchases, so it shouldn't be treated as a rule for every sector. But the direction is clear: on-time delivery helps bring the customer back.

In practice, promise a delivery time you can meet even at the peak. It's better to say seven days and deliver in five than to say three and deliver in six. On Black Friday, carriers face higher volume, and delays happen.

Talk to the carrier beforehand

Ask the carrier or the postal service (Correios) about pickup times for the period, volume limits, and the cutoff for delivery before Christmas. If you work with more than one option, decide which one you will use if the main one fails. Having a plan B for shipping prevents panic in the busiest week.

Packaging and dispatch

Sort and pack ahead of the peak whatever you can. If you have products that are sure to sell, keep boxes, labels, and tape ready. Set a cutoff time for same-day orders and announce it on the site. A simple, repeatable process, with a printed checklist at the packing station, prevents shipping errors when everyone is tired.

Report delays without waiting for the complaint

If something is late, tell the customer before they ask. A short message, with the new estimate and an apology, costs little and avoids a good share of complaints and marketplace disputes. An informed customer tolerates a delay. An ignored customer becomes a bad review.

Fake ads and profiles using your store's name

In Black Friday week 2025, November 23 to 29, Serasa Experian (a Brazilian credit bureau and data analytics company) identified 604 fake ads, up 147% from the weekly average of November 2 to 22. There were also 625 fake profiles, about 89 per day (+101%), plus 103 fake websites and 7 fake apps.

In total, there were 1,339 threats in the week, 99% more than the average of the previous weeks. Ads and profiles together add up to 1,229, or 91.8% of the total. In all of November 2025, Serasa counted 3,358 threats, and 39.9% of them fell in the last week. In 2026, the number of threats in the first half is already 27.2% above the same period of 2025.

What these numbers say (and what they don't)

It's worth reading them carefully. Serasa Experian did not explain its detection method, and the data covers scams aimed at consumers, such as fake ads and profiles. They do not measure chargebacks, which are purchase disputes that reach the merchant. So the data doesn't prove that your store will have more payment fraud. It proves that the environment around Black Friday gets fuller of scams.

And that affects you in another way. A scammer can copy your store's name, logo, and photos to deceive the customer. The customer is deceived, but the complaint comes to you.

How to protect the store's reputation

A few simple actions help, and none requires an expensive tool:

• Publish on your site and social media which are your official channels: domain, profiles, and WhatsApp number.
• Tell customers that the store does not ask for payment outside the site and does not send payment links by message without a prior order.
• Search for the store's name on social media and in ads during the campaign days.
• Use the platforms' reporting tools when you find a copied profile or ad.
• Keep screenshots and links, in case you need to prove the incident later.

Brief the customer service team

Whoever serves customers needs to know how to recognize a scam case: a person who paid through a fake profile, a strange link, a conversation from an unknown number. Define a short response script, calmly explaining what happened and which are the official channels. A deceived customer arrives already upset, and clear service helps preserve the relationship.

WhatsApp support: handling the volume without losing quality

More quotes, more orders, and more scams mean more messages. None of the sources we used measures support volume, so we have no number to cite. But the logic is straightforward: with more people buying and researching, the question "where is my order?" shows up in greater numbers.

If WhatsApp is your main channel, it will be the first to feel it. The good news is that a good share of the questions repeat, and you can prepare.

Map the questions that come up most

Look at the conversations from recent months and list the ten most common questions: delivery time, tracking, exchanges, size, payment method, invoice. Write short, clear answers for each one. Save them as quick replies, if the app allows it. This saves time and standardizes the tone.

Reply fast, even if it's just to say you're checking

A customer who researches a lot, as Mansano describes, also demands speed. An immediate reply saying "we received it, we're looking into it" usually calms people more than silence followed by a perfect answer. Set up an automatic welcome message, with business hours and response time, so the customer knows what to expect.

Who answers, and when

Set the schedule before the day. Who answers on the 27th? And on the 26th, 28th, and 29th? If the team is one or two people, tell customers in advance about hours and response times. If possible, arrange backup, even temporary, and train with the ready-made scripts. A desperate agent improvises, and improvising on Black Friday is expensive.

A channel for after-sales

Set aside a clear way for the customer to follow the order without having to ask. A tracking link in the email and in the confirmation message cuts a good share of the questions. The less customers need to ask, the less overloaded the team gets.

30-day checklist: what to do from today until the 27th

Today is October 27. There are 31 days left until Black Friday. There is time to prepare the store calmly, as long as you split the work into stages. Below is a suggested order, which you can adapt to your business.

Week 1 (October 27 to November 2): numbers and decisions

• Pull sales, average ticket, and margin per order from the previous Black Friday.
• Build three sales scenarios: pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic.
• Define which products go into the campaign and how much discount each can take.
• Calculate the cash needed to buy inventory and invest in ads.
• Talk to suppliers about lead times and replenishment.

Week 2 (November 3 to 9): site, checkout, and logistics

• Test the full purchase flow on a phone.
• Talk to whoever looks after the site about capacity and on-call coverage.
• Confirm pickup times with carriers and define plan B.
• Prepare packaging, labels, and the dispatch area.
• Review the coupon and shipping rules.

Week 3 (November 10 to 16): communication and customer service

• Warm up the customer base by email, WhatsApp, and social media.
• Test an offer on 11.11, if it makes sense for your audience.
• Write the quick replies for the most common questions.
• Define the support schedule for November 26 to 29.
• Publish the store's official channels and the scam warning.

Week 4 (November 17 to 23): final adjustments

• Check physical inventory against the site's inventory.
• Freeze major changes to the site and to prices.
• Run one last test purchase, with coupon and shipping.
• Review ads and landing pages.
• Align the team: who does what on each day.

Final days (November 24 to 27): operations

• Monitor orders, inventory, and customer service throughout the day.
• Search for the store's name in ads and profiles, looking for copies.
• Update the customer on any delay, without waiting to be asked.
• Note what worked and what got stuck, to use next year.

Common mistakes of those who prepare at the last minute

Anyone who works in small retail knows the script: the week starts upbeat, the site crashes, the inventory vanishes, and the team spends the weekend putting out fires. Most of these problems are predictable. Here are the ones that show up most in small stores.

Copying the competitor's discount

Matching the price of a larger store without calculating your own margin is a short road to losses. The large store has different scale, supplier negotiation, and operating costs. Find your limit and respect it, even if that means sitting out some products.

Treating the forecast as a promise

Saying "the market will grow 20%, so I'll buy 20% more inventory" mixes two things. Market growth depends on many stores and on assumptions, such as customers migrating from chains in crisis. Your growth depends on your audience, your ads, and your operation. Use the forecast to calibrate the climate, not to multiply your inventory.

Forgetting the cost of each order

With the average ticket falling, each order weighs more. Selling more cheap items with expensive shipping can turn into a loss. Do the margin math, always including shipping, payment fees, packaging, and discount, before building the campaign.

Changing the site at the last minute

Swapping a theme, installing a plugin, or changing the checkout in the week of the date is asking for trouble. If a change isn't essential, leave it for later. If it is, test it well and have a way to roll back.

Promising a delivery time you can't meet

We've said it already, but it bears repeating: on-time delivery helps bring the customer back, and a delay pushes the other way. The best offer doesn't make up for a broken promise.

Ignoring the post-Black Friday period

Since about three quarters of November 2025 sales happened outside the four days, stopping sales on Monday is wasting demand. Keep conditions for those who haven't decided, take care of new customers, and use the list you built to sell in December.

Leaving customer service for last

Many stores invest in ads and forget who will answer the customer. If message volume doubles and the team stays the same, the experience drops. Customer service is part of the campaign, not a separate item.

Quick questions

Which Black Friday 2026 forecast is the right one?

Neither can be called right yet. Abiacom estimates R$ 16.6 billion for Black Friday week, and Neotrust R$ 13.3 billion for four days, November 26 to 29. The methods and periods are different, so the numbers can't be compared directly.

Do I need to increase inventory by 20% because the market will grow?

Not necessarily. Market growth is an average, and your store may grow more, less, or not at all. Look at your history, build scenarios, and buy inventory by risk range. If possible, negotiate smaller replenishments with your supplier during the month, instead of a single batch.

Is it worth taking part if my margin is tight?

It depends on the math. Calculate the real margin per order, with shipping, payment fees, packaging, and discount. If the numbers don't add up, consider limiting the campaign to products that can take a discount, or working with bundles that raise the order value. Taking part without knowing your margin is the biggest risk.

What do I do if I find a fake profile using my store's name?

Record screenshots and links, report it on the platform, and tell your customers through the official channels. Make clear which are the real site, profiles, and WhatsApp. If a customer fell for the scam, handle them calmly, explain what happened, and guide them on next steps, such as filing a police report.

If I miss the date, can I still sell during the month?

Yes. In November 2025, only 23.5% of e-commerce revenue fell in the four days of Black Friday, according to Neotrust. About three quarters happened on other days. Offers before and after the date, with a warmed-up customer list, still have room.

What should I prioritize if I only have one week to prepare?

Prioritize what breaks the sale: a checkout test on a phone, an inventory check, a realistic delivery time, and a customer service script. A pretty ad is no use if the customer can't pay or if no one is there to answer. Leave the rest until after the date.

Where Diglion comes in

Diglion helps small and medium-sized businesses reach Black Friday with a tested e-commerce operation: a review of the checkout flow and site performance, integration between store, inventory, and carriers so that the delivery promise reflects reality, and WhatsApp support automation with ready-made replies and order tracking. The work starts from your store's numbers, such as margin per order and sales history, so the plan uses your scenario and not the market average.

Sources consulted

• E-Commerce Brasil, Black Friday 2026: e-commerce deve movimentar R$ 16,6 bilhões, projeta Abiacom, retrieved 2026-10-27.
• Mercado&Consumo, Black Friday 2026 deve movimentar mais de R$ 16 bilhões no e-commerce, retrieved 2026-10-27.
• Exame, Black Friday deve movimentar R$ 13,3 bilhões, mas crise no varejo desafia vendas, retrieved 2026-10-27.
• Confi, Black Friday 2026: projeção Neotrust, retrieved 2026-10-27.
• Serasa Experian, Anúncios falsos disparam 147% na semana da Black Friday, retrieved 2026-10-27.
• Mercado&Consumo, Intelipost projeta alta de 14% nas cotações de frete na Black Friday 2026, retrieved 2026-10-27.